Highlights

A talk on the use of historical information for the definition of geo-hydrological risk.

Together with Stefano L. Gariano and Paola Salvati. After too many months of forced apnea, a (too short) breath of fresh air.

"A Recipe for Climate Disaster".

A story by Kendra Pierre-Louis on climate and landslides in the science section of The Atlantic, to which I have contributed with an interview.

Rainfall modeling, measurement and applications.

All you need to know about rainfall and its consequences. A new book edited by Renato Morbidelli, with a chapter on rainfall and landslide initiation.

On the prediction of populations of landslides and their consequences.

As part of WLF5, 3-6 November 2021, I was given the opportunity to present my thoughts on the present and future possibility to predict populations of landslides and their consequences. You can read about the topic here and here.

My perspective on the scope for studying natural hazards and risk.

I gave a presentation on the role of science for civil protection at the meeting Science for Civil Protection Day, part of the 2021 National civil protection week.

Prime Minister Draghi visits the Civil Protection Department.

I had the chance to brief Prime Minister Draghi on the forecast and prevention activities conducted by the Civil Protection Department.

Member of the exact sciences, earth & cosmic sciences class.

Have you ever wondered how many kilometres of railways in Italy are subject (potentially) to rockfalls? Read this paper and you will get an idea.

Alvioli M., Santangelo M., Fiorucci F., Cardinali M., Marchesini I., Reichenbach P., Rossi M., Guzzetti F., Peruccacci S. (2021) Rockfall susceptibility and network--ranked susceptibility along the Italian railway. Engineering Geology 293, 106301, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106301

Istituto Veneto di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti

The Venice based Istituto Veneto di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti has informed me that on 12 September 2021 I will become a corresponding member of this prestigious academy. I am truly honoured by this privilege. To see the cerimony, click here.

A new model attempts to predict the size [read area] of earthquake induced landslides based on terrain conditions.

Lombardo L., Tanyas H., Huser R., Guzzetti F., Castro-Camilo D. (2021) Landslide size matters: a new spatial predictive paradigm? Engineering Geology 293, 106288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106288

Good news folks. A new study suggests that we should not expect landslides in nearly 83% of the landmasses. The problem is in the remaining 17% ...

Jia G., Alvioli M., Gariano S.L., Marchesini I., Guzzetti F., Tang Q. (2021) A Global Landslide Non-Susceptibility Map. Geomorphology 389, 107804, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107804

A new paper on an innovative data-driven [read statistical] flood hazard zonation for Italy.

Marchesini I., Salvati P., Rossi M., Donnini M., Sterlacchini S., Guzzetti F. (2021) Data-driven flood hazard zonation of Italy. Journal of Environmental Management 294, 112986, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112986

Wow ... a round-the-clock event on landslide early warning systems.

Believe it or not, the LandAware international network on landslide early warning systems (LEWS) organizes "MayDAy", a unique round-the-clock meeting on LEWS, on 19 & 20 May 2021. Those interested can register here.

Are landslide populations predictable? Yes! ... well, to some extent.

In a new "perspective" article in NHESS, I outline my views on the predictability of landslide populations caused by different triggers, and I provide recommendations on what to do to improve our ability to predict landslide populations. The article appeared in a special issue of NHESS to celebrate the journal's 20th anniversary. Happy birthday HNESS!

EGU Sergey Soloviev Medal

The news of the Soloviev Medal came with an email, as unexpected as it was welcome. I have spent a good part of my research career dealing with natural hazards, particularly geo-hydrological hazards, and I am happy that the EGU has recognised my work, which is also that of the many colleagues I have worked with. You can read the motivation for the award here, and an interview for the EGU Natural hazards blog here.

An updated ranking of authors across fields ...

John Ioannidis and his colleagues have updated their science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators to cover 2019.

A paper reviewing (critically) how to detect and map landslides using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, taken mostly from satellites.

Mondini A.C., Guzzetti F., Chang K.-T., Monserrat O., Martha T.R., Manconi A. (2021) Landslide failures detection and mapping using Synthetic Aperture Radar: Past, present and future. Earth-Science Reviews 216, 103574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103574

LandAware kick-off meeting ... a chance to spread the word.

On Monday, 14 December 2020 we held the first (online) public meeting of LandAware - the network on Landslide Early Warning Systems. Since we even have a YouTube channel 🙂... you can watch the recording of the event here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qdts0kuV3MU. Enjoy ... and if you are in a hurry, my talk starts at about minute 29:30.

With colleagues and friends in three continents we founded LandAware, a network on Landslide Early Warning Systems.

If you are interested, read Calvello M., Devoli G., Freeborough K., Gariano S.L., Guzzetti F., Kirschbaum D., Nakaya H., Robbins J., Stähli M. (2020) LandAware: a new international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01548-7

Quite certainly, the most advanced landslide model(s) I have ever worked on, with new and old friends. A long way from "classic" susceptibility models.

Lombardo L., Opitz T., Ardizzone F., Guzzetti F., Huser R, (2020) Space-Time Landslide Predictive Modelling.  Earth-Science Reviews 209, 103218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103318

Can ground deformations after a large seismic event provide insights on the occurrence of new large earthquakes? Probably yes, at least for some earthquakes.

Brozzetti F., Mondini A.C., Pauselli C., Mancinelli P., Cirillo D., Guzzetti F., Lavecchia G., 2020. Mainshock Anticipated by Intra-Sequence Ground Deformations: Insights from Multiscale Field and SAR Interferometric Measurements. Geosciences 10, 186. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10050186

Have you ever wondered how the past of a landslide conditions its future? In a new article, we propose a framework to describe and - hopefully - understand it.

Temme A.J.A.M., Guzzetti F., Samia J., Mirus B.B. (2020) The future of landslides’ past – a framework for assessing consecutive landsliding systems. Landslides, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01405-7

#IoRestoaCasa

source of image: https://europaincanto.com/
see also: https://www.europaincanto.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Europa_incanto_Nessun_dorma_700_bambini.mov

Can we partition Italy using hydrological subdivisions? A new paper in Geomorphology tells you how.

Alvioli M. ("Massi"), Guzzetti F., Marchesini I. (2020) Parameter-free delineation of slope units and terrain subdivision of Italy. Geomorphology 358, 107124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107124.

Antonello Pasini comes out with a new book, The equation of disasters, with a little contribution of mine.

Antonello Pasini, climatologist, Cnr scientist and blogger, asked Alessio Valente and myself to contribute in one of the chapters of his new book "L'equazione dei disastri" (The disaster equation). It was fun and instructive to work with Antonello and Alessio on chapter 3 of the book, devoted to the anthropization and fragility of the Italian territory, and on the expected consequences of the changing climate.

We published a rather critical review of geographical landslide early warning systems (LEWS), with a number of - hopefully helpful - recommendations.

Guzzetti F., Gariano S.L., Peruccacci S., Brunetti M.T., Marchesini I., Rossi M., Melillo M., 2020. Geographical landslide early warning systems. Earth-Science Reviews 200, 102973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102973

What do we know how to predict? What do we not know how to predict? What can we predict? What we cannot predict?

These are some of the questions that 80 Italian scientists interested in the prediction of natural hazards have discussed in a two day workshop held by the Italian IUGG committee at the Cnr headquarters in Rome, Italy, on 26 al 27 November 2019. Sixteen keynote speakers set the ground for a series of engaging and fruitful discussions. An experience to repeat, hopefully soon ...

Together, school and research fight natural hazards and their consequences.

Students and teachers of the Istituto Tecnico Tecnologico Statale "Alessandro Volta" and researchers of the CNR Research Institute for Hydrogeological Protection in Perugia presented a joint activity to increase the awareness of natural hazards and their consequences.

12th Asian Regional Conference of the IAEG in Jeju, South Korea.

I had the privilege to be invited and to give a keynote at the 12th Asian Regional Conference (ARC) of the International Association of Engineering Geology and the Environment (IAEG), held in the wonderful island of Jeju, South Korea, from 23 to 27 September 2019. Nice people, great setting and spectacular volcano geology and geomorphology.

A global ranking of "top" scientists ...

John Ioannidis and his colleagues have published an interesting paper in PLOS Biology to present their standardized citation metrics author database annotated for scientific field. The database contains data used to rank 100,000 "top" scientists - whatever that means - globally, in all fields of science.

Have fun snooping through the lists!

Centennial International Cooperation in Earth and Space Sciences workshop.

I was fortunate to attend the Centennial International Cooperation in Earth and Space Sciences workshop, held at the UNESCO Headquarters, in Paris, France, on 29 July 2019. Some of the talks given at the workshop were truly inspiring.

Science Diplomacy 2.0: towards a knowledge-based support to policy.

I participated to the first event of the School for Science in Diplomacy, school4SID, organized by CNR and the Istituto Tecnico Nautico Caboto, in Gaeta, Italy, from 5 to 7 June 2019. Great idea, great people, great setting and ... amazing food.

Landslide risk in Italy. A new predictive model of societal landslide risk in Italy.

Rossi M., Guzzetti F., Salvati P., Donnini M., Napolitano E., Cinzia B. (2019) A predictive model of societal landslide risk in Italy. Earth-Science Reviews, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.021.

IUGG | International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics.

In February, I was appointed Italian representative to the IUGG. I then attended the 27th IUGG General Assembly held in Montreal, Canada, from 8 to 18 July 2019.

If you like to read more about the Italian IUGG committee, visit the dedicated CNR web page.

A paper ... in Italian (sorry!), on the urgent need of a new science on natural hazards and risk.

Guzzetti F. (2018) Rischi naturali: l’urgenza di una scienza nuova. In: Caporale C., Maffei L., Marchis V., De Martin J.D. (eds.) Europa, Le Sfide della Scienza, Istituto della Enciclopedia Italiana, Volume 2, Treccani, ISBN 978-88-12-00653-3, 127-133.

Geo-hydrological Hazards in a Global Warming Scenario.

I was fortunate to give a talk at the Conference on Climate Change, Health of the Planet and Future of Humanity, jointly organized by the the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Italian National Research Council, in the Vatican City, on 15 November 2018. You may be interested in reading the final statement of the conference.

PericolositĂ  e Rischio Geo-Idrologico: cosa facciamo e cosa dovremmo fare.

I gave this talk at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, in Rome, on 26 October 2018, in the framework of the meeting Geosciences for the Future [«Le Geoscienze per il Futuro»]. The meeting was GREAT!

What shape is a landslide? A new paper in ESPL on Landslide shape, ellipticity and length-to-width ratios.

Taylor F.E., Malamud B.D., Witt A., Guzzetti F. (2018) Landslide shape, ellipticity and length-to-width ratios. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4479

San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment (DORA)

I have signed the San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment, DORA. I encourage others to read the declaration, and should they agree with its content and scopes, to sign it.

A paper in the Journal Science of the Total Environment on implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

Alvioli M., Melillo M., Guzzetti F., Rossi M. Palazzi E., von Hardenberg J., Brunetti M.T., Peruccacci S. (2018) Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy. Science of the Total Environment 630, 1528-1543, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.315

A paper in the Journal of Environmental Management on a new database structure for landslides and floods and their consequences.

Napolitano E., Marchesini I., Salvati P., Donnini M., Bianchi C., Giostrella P., Guzzetti F. (2018) LAND-deFeND – an innovative database structure for landslides and floods and their consequences. Journal of Environmental Management 207, 203-218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.022

A paper in Earth-Science Reviews on landslide susceptibility modelling.

Reichenbach P., Rossi M., Malamud B.D., Mihir M., Guzzetti F. (2018) A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models. Earth-Science Reviews 180, 60–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.20 18.03.001

A paper in Science of the Total Environment on Gender, age and circumstances analysis of flood and landslide fatalities in Italy.

Salvati P., Petrucci O., Rossi M., Bianchi C., Pasqua A.A., Guzzetti F. (2018) Gender, age and circumstances analysis of flood and landslide fatalities in Italy. Science of the Total Environment 610-611, 867-879, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.064

A paper in Geomorphology on Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy.

Peruccacci S., Brunetti M.T., Gariano S.L., Melillo M., Rossi M., Guzzetti F. (2017) Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy. Geomorphology 290, 39-57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.031

ARC 11 IAEG conference in Kathmandu, Nepal

I attended the 11th Asian Regional Conference of the International Association of Engineering Geology and the Environment, IEAG, held in Kathmandu, Nepal, on November 28-30, 2017.

The conferenze was instructive and the setting overwhelming.

Frane, frane e ancora frane. Come difenderci?

A talk [in Italian, sorry] entitled Frane, frane e ancora frane. Come difenderci? The talk was delivered to a high school class at the Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze dei XL, Scuderie Vecchie di Villa Torlonia, Roma, on 13 November 2017.

Frane e inondazioni in Italia: cosa sono, perché ci colpiscono e cosa possiamo fare per difenderci?

In the framework of the World Environment Day (WED) [la Giornata Mondiale dell'Ambiente] the Gran Sasso Science Institute organized the national meeting "Capire e prevedere le catastrofi naturali: il ruolo della Geologia e della Geofisica" which was held in l'Aquila on June 22nd, 2017. They kindly invited me, and I gave a talk entitled Frane e inondazioni in Italia: cosa sono, perché ci colpiscono e cosa possiamo fare per difenderci?

A paper in HESS on the Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds.

Marra F., Destro E., Nikolopoulos E.I., Zoccatelli D., Creutin J.D., Guzzetti F., Borga M. (2017) Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, 4525-4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017

TEDxCNR

On October 8th, 2016, I gave a TED talk @ TEDxCnr on "Perché le frane sono così poco "sexy"?" [Why landslides are not "sexy"?].

The TED talk is available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h79D1tr8TW0

A paper in Earth-Science Reviews on landslides in a changing climate.

Gariano S.L., Guzzetti F. (2016) Landslides in a changing climate. Earth-Science Reviews 162, 227-252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011

A paper in ESPL on Landslide distribution and size in response to Quaternary fault activity in NE Sicily.

Bucci F., Santangelo M., Cardinali M., Fiorucci F., Guzzetti F. (2016) Landslide distribution and size in response to Quaternary fault activity: the Peloritani Range, NE Sicily, Italy. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 41, 711-720 https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3898

IAEG | International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment.

In March, I was appointed by Cnr Italian representative to the IAEG, for the period 2015 - 2019.

A paper in Geomorphology on the calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds.

Gariano S.L., Brunetti M.T., Iovine G., Melillo M., Peruccacci S., Terranova O., Vennari C., Guzzetti F. (2015) Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy. Geomorphology 228, 653-665 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.019

Towards improved landslide mapping and forecasting.

A talk delivered at the XII IAEG Congress, Enginnering Geology for Society and Territory, held in Turin, Italy, on 15-19 September 2014.

Should you be interested, the video lecture of the keynote lecture is available here, together with many other lectures given at the meeting.

A paper in NHESS on Floods and Climate.

Merz B., Aerts J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Baldi M., Becker A., Bichet A., Blöschl G., Bouwer L. M., Brauer A., Cioffi F., Delgado J. M., Gocht M., Guzzetti F., Harrigan S., Hirschboeck K., Kilsby C., Kron W., Kwon H.-H., Lall U., Merz R., Nissen K., Salvati P., Swierczynski T., Ulbrich U., Viglione A., Ward P. J., Weiler M., Wilhelm B., Nied M. (2014). Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, 1921-1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014

A paper in EPSL on landslides in the Valles Marineris, Mars.

Brunetti M.T., Guzzetti F., Cardinali M., Fiorucci F., Santangelo M., Mancinelli P., Komatsu G., Borselli L. (2014) Analysis of a new geomorphological inventory of landslides in Valles Marineris, Mars. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 405, 156-168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.08.025

A paper in Remote Sensing on the use of large archives of C-Band SAR data to investigate ground deformations.

Del Ventisette C., Ciampalini A., Manunta M., Calò F., Paglia L., Ardizzone F., Mondini A.C., Reichenbach P., Mateos, Bianchini S., Garcia I., Füsi B., Deák V., Rádi K., Graniczny M., Kowalski Z., Piatkowska A., Surala M., Retzo H., Strozzi T., Colombo D., Mora O., Sánchez, Herrera G., Moretti S., Casagli N., Guzzetti F. (2013) Exploitation of large archives of ERS and ENVISAT C-Band SAR data to characterize ground deformations. Remote Sensing 5(8), 3896-3917, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5083896

This was a result of the DORIS Project, funded by the EC [Grant Agreement n. 242212], which I coordinated.

A paper in Earth-Science Reviews on Landslide inventory maps.

Guzzetti F., Mondini A.C., Cardinali M., Fiorucci F., Santangelo M., Chang K.T. (2012) Landslide inventory maps: new tools for an old problem. Earth-Science Reviews 112, 42-66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.02.001

A paper in EPSL on landslide volumes and landslide mobilization rates in Umbria.

Guzzetti F., Ardizzone F., Cardinali M., Rossi M., Valigi D. (2009) Landslide volumes and landslide mobilization rates in Umbria, central Italy. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 279, 222-229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2009.01.005

A paper in Landslides on the rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows.

Guzzetti F., Peruccacci S., Rossi M., Stark C.P. (2008) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1), 3-17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1

In 2006, I obtained a Ph.D. in Geography from the Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität ... that is, the University of Bonn, Germany.

My dissertation was on Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment. My advisor was Prof. Richard Dikau and the adjunct advisor was Dr. (now Prof.) Thomas Glade.

The thesis is available from:

A paper in Geomorphology on probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale.

Guzzetti F., Reichenbach P., Cardinali M., Galli M., Ardizzone F. (2005) Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale. Geomorphology 72, 272-299, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.06.002

A paper in ESPL on the statistical properties of landslide inventories.

Malamud B.D., Turcotte D.L., Guzzetti F., Reichenbach P. (2004) Landslide inventories and their statistical properties. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 29(6), 687-711, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1064

A paper in PNAS on self-organization, the cascade model and natural hazards.

Turcotte D.L., Malamud B.D., Guzzetti F., Reichenbach P. (2002) Self-organization, the cascade model and natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99(1), 2530-2537, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.012582199

My first paper on landslide risk to the population in Italy.

Guzzetti F. (2000) Landslide fatalities and the evaluation of landslide risk in Italy. Engineering Geology 58, 89-107, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00047-8

A paper in Geomorphology on Landslide hazard evaluation.

Guzzetti F., Carrara A., Cardinali M., Reichenbach P. (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31, 181-216, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00078-1

This is my most cited paper. Mostly because it is old.

My first paper on thresholds for landslides (and floods) forecasting.

Reichenbach P., Cardinali M., De Vita L., Guzzetti F. (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River basin (central Italy). Environmental Geology (now Environmental Earth Sciences) 35(2-3), 146-159, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002540050301

A paper in Geomorphology on geomorphometry and topographic zonation of Italy.

Guzzetti F. & Reichenbach P. (1994) Towards the definition of topographic divisions of Italy. Geomorphology 11, 57-74, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555X(94)90042-6

My first paper on the collection and use of historical data for landslide and flood risk assessment.

Guzzetti F., Cardinali M., Reichenbach P. (1994) The AVI Project: A bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy. Environmental Management 18, 623-633, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02400865

A paper in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms on GIS and landslide hazard evaluation.

Carrara A., Cardinali M., Detti R., Guzzetti F., Pasqui V., Reichenbach P. (1991) GIS Techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 16(5), 427-445.

A paper on the results of my master thesis, the theses of three of my friends, and the work of our supervisor.

Barchi M., Guzzetti F., Lavecchia G., Lolli O., Bontempo R. (1987) Sezioni geologiche bilanciate attraverso il sistema a pieghe umbro-marchigiano: 1. la sezione Trevi-Valle dell'Ambro. Bollettino SocietĂ  Geologica Italiana 107, 109-130

One of my first papers ...

Guzzetti F. (1987) Relationships between the internal and external evolution of the Monte Cucco karst area. Umbria, Central Italy. International Journal of Speleology 16, 111-124, https://doi.org/10.5038/1827-806x.16.3.5

Believe it or not, I was once a caver ...

For many years I was a caver, having fun exploring caves. This is where I learned the value of team work.